twitter RSS Feed linkedin acp contact

Fertiliser consumption rise expected in 2012

The International Fertiliser Industry Association (IFA) has just released its short-term Fertiliser Outlook 2012-2013 to the public

The report shows that the fertiliser sector has now fully recuperated from the setback of 2008/09 and is maintaining a steady stream of investment in new capacity, capitalising on the positive forecasts of a three per cent increase in consumption worldwide for the main nutrients – nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) – in 2012.

Agricultural commodity prices peaked at the beginning of 2011 and remained high throughout the first half of the year due to tight market conditions in 2010/11. Last year’s global cereal harvest reached a new record of 2.3bn MT. However, this increase in production will be entirely absorbed by rising demand for food, feed and biofuel uses. As a result, the global stock-to-use ratio is seen as remaining stable but still relatively low at the end of the 2011/12 campaign. More worryingly, the ratio for coarse grains is expected to decline for the third consecutive year, to a very low level, due to a disappointing maize harvest in the US (according to USDA crop forecasts). The FAO indicated in the last quarter of 2011 that agricultural commodity prices had been contracting in the second half of the year but were still well above historical levels, driven by tight maize market conditions and competition for land between crops.

Stimulated by the sharp rebound of world economic activity, particularly in developing countries, and strong agricultural market fundamentals, IFA estimates that global fertiliser consumption increased by 6.2 per cent in 2010/11, to 173mn MT of nutrients. Responding to attractive agricultural commodity prices, world fertiliser demand is anticipated to rise steadily in 2011/12. “World demand would increase by three per cent in 2011/12, to a record 178.2mn MT,” says Patrick Heffer, Director of the IFA Agriculture Service. By the end of the 2011/12 campaign, world fertiliser demand is expected to have fully recovered from the economic downturn for the three macronutrients. N, P and K fertiliser demand in 2011/12 would surpass their 2007/08 levels by 7.2, 2.7 and 0.5mn Mt, respectively. Forecasts for 2012/13 are highly speculative in view of the rapidly deteriorating economic context in advanced economies. Tentative forecasts point to 2.3 per cent growth.

“World nutrient supply, in 2011, expanded in response to such robust fertiliser demand. The global production of ammonia, phosphate rock and potash reached record levels,” said Michel Prud’homme, Director of the IFA Production and International Trade Service. However, global nutrient capacity grew at a slower rate than production, confirming the tightness of supply seen throughout 2011, because of delays in new capacity commissioning and stronger than expected demand. Global trade was rather subdued, and home deliveries accounted for most of the growth in total sales. This could be explained by rising capacity in high-consuming countries, carry-over of stocks at buyers’ ends, and strong domestic sales.

IFA estimates that global sales prospects point to 2.6 per cent overall growth in 2012, reaching a record level of 232mn MT nutrients, with production increases of about 2.5 per cent for nitrogen, 3.5 per cent for phosphate products, and up to four per cent for potash. Global trade prospects appear positive for virtually all products.

“Massive investments in new capacity projects since 2009 have now started to add significant new supply of urea, DAP and potash,” said Prud’homme. However, several factors have the potential to change the supply landscape and impact current trade flows and investment decisions in the near term. These include the continued shortfall in the supply of natural gas in a few large nitrogen producing countries, such as China, Iran, Pakistan, Trinidad and Venezuela; the implementation of export taxes on fertilisers; delays in the completion of new capacity projects; and increasingly stringent environmental regulations.

In a global context of high uncertainty regarding the state of regional and global economies 2012, the fertiliser industry is, comparatively speaking, performing well.  Short-term prospects appear positive, demonstrating the positioning of the industry as a key player in the broader agrifood supply chain and a key actor in providing the inputs farmers need to grow more food more sustainably.

http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/HomePage/FERTILIZERS-THE-INDUSTRY/Market-outlooks.html


LATEST NEWS IN Agriculture

USAID and NASA renew partnership to address development and humanitarian challenges

USAID and NASA renew partnership to addr…

On 4 November, Administrator Samantha Power signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to renew...

Norway promises top-up contribution of urgently needed climate finance

Norway promises top-up contribution of u…

On 9 November 2022, Norway, as part of a commitment to triple its support to climate adaptation by 2026, has pledged an additional US$9.5mn contribution of urgently needed climate finance...

Better Cotton signs partnership agreement with IDH and CotonChad

Better Cotton signs partnership agreemen…

Better Cotton recently signed a multi-stakeholder Letter of Intent to participate in the landscape approach, developed with local stakeholders in Chad in conjunction with IDH, intending to work towards improving...

NFU president Minette Batters appointed as ambassador of Farm Africa

NFU president Minette Batters appointed …

Farm Africa, a charity that promotes sustainable agricultural practices, strengthens markets and protects the environment in rural eastern Africa, has announced the appointment of NFU president Minette Batters as an...

AfDB grants US$63.38mn loan to implement agro-processing project in Senegal

AfDB grants US$63.38mn loan to implement…

The board of directors of the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group in Abidjan has approved a loan of US$63.38mn to Senegal to implement the Agropole-Centre agro-industrial processing zone project

Farming innovations which help conserve nature and create jobs

Farming innovations which help conserve …

On World Food Day, farmers in the UK and globally showed how innovative farming methods and techniques can improve lives, help meet global climate targets and produce food without harming...

Prev Next

OTHER RELATED ARTICLES - Agriculture

Getting fertiliser into farmer’s hands

Getting fertiliser into farmer’s hands

To facilitate access to subsidized fertilizer for smallholder farmers, IFDC has developed a fertiliser voucher programme that relies on a public-private partnership

AfDB hosts meeting to fight Fall Armyworm

AfDB hosts meeting to fight Fall Armywor…

The African Development Bank (AfDB) is hosting “From Plan to Action,” meeting to control Fall Armyworm in southern Africa from 26-27 July 2018

MEA bio-stimulants market witnessing high demand due to shrinking area for cultivation

MEA bio-stimulants market witnessing hig…

The demand for organic products and methods is rising in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) as countries within the region focus on improving agricultural yield

World Bank to support development of agri-food sector in Cote d’Ivoire

World Bank to support development of agr…

The World Bank has approved US$250mn in total financing from IDA to support the development of the agri-food sector and the creation of thousands of jobs in rural areas of...

How to prevent downy mildew in rose stems

How to prevent downy mildew in rose stem…

Dr Lisbeth Riis, founder and CEO at Scarab Solutions, has discussed how tackling downy mildew requires preventive measures, effective scouting, early intervention and regularly executed control

US launches aflatoxin and chronic malnutrition study in Mozambique

US launches aflatoxin and chronic malnut…

The government of the US, through its Agency for International Development, has launched a study to assess the relationship between aflatoxin exposure and chronic malnutrition in children, in a new...

Corteva Agriscience leads fight against above-ground maize pests

Corteva Agriscience leads fight against …

Corteva Agriscience has officially introduced PowerCore technology to South Africa’s maize farmers

AFC supports drought-stricken farmers in Kenya

AFC supports drought-stricken farmers in…

Kenya’s Agricultural Finance Corporation (AFC) has released US$ 9.4mn to buy livestock animals from drought-stricken farmers in 22 counties across Kenya

Blackpace Group to bring potato production and processing to Nigeria and Rwanda

Blackpace Group to bring potato producti…

The government of Nigeria and Rwanda have signed multimillion dollar deals with a Nigerian investor, the Blackpace Africa Group, to revamp and develop their potato industries and help to upscale...

Growing reliance on foreign crops threatens diversity

Growing reliance on foreign crops threat…

New research has revealed that countries increasingly rely on introduced plants for food and need to cooperate to protect crop diversity

Waste not, want not: turning harvest waste into electricity

Waste not, want not: turning harvest was…

When even waste material can be used to produce energy, it’s a win-win situation all round

Business opportunities in Rwandan agriculture abound

Business opportunities in Rwandan agricu…

With political will from the Rwanda Government and support from development partners, agriculture in Rwanda today represents both an incredible development and a profitable business opportunity

Prev Next