Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation, while others may benefit from the shifting climate. (Image source: Shutterstock)
According to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR), climate change is having a significant impact on cocoa production in West and Central Africa
Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation, while others may benefit from the shifting climate. Researcher Paulina Asante from Ghana and her colleagues used a computer model to simulate the impact of climate change by 2060 in four countries: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. In Ivory Coast, up to 50% of the current cocoa-growing areas could be lost, significantly reducing production. Ghana is expected to see a moderate decline in suitable areas, while Nigeria and Cameroon may experience an increase in arable land for cocoa. Cameroon’s production could rise by 60%, and Nigeria’s by approximately 40%.
Risk of increased deforestation
These shifts may push cocoa farming into previously untouched areas, increasing the risk of deforestation, explained WUR researcher, Niels Anten. “Cameroon has a relatively large amount of rainforest, and cocoa is often grown in areas that were originally tropical forests. This puts significant pressure on these ecosystems.”
"Addressing the impact of climate change on cocoa requires an all-hands-on-deck approach. It affects every stage of the supply chain: farmers face reduced yields, businesses encounter rising costs, and consumers see higher prices,” said Paulina Asante. “While collaboration can be challenging, it is crucial to help current production regions adapt and maintain production on existing plantations. This will prevent cocoa-related deforestation elsewhere and ensure that deforestation-free policies, like the EU law EUDR, deliver meaningful outcomes."
New EU law to prevent deforestation
The European Union is introducing new import rules to combat global deforestation. Starting in September, the Regulation of Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR) will prohibit imports of products, including cocoa, from areas deforested after 2021.
Uncertain factors in projections
The models used by the researchers combine current knowledge of cocoa physiology with projected climate changes in West and Central Africa. However, there are still many unknowns. One is the effect of rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Since CO2 enhances photosynthesis, it could mitigate some of the negative effects of drought and heat. The extent of this impact remains uncertain. Additionally, researchers are still exploring how flowering and fruiting will respond to warming, as well as how pests and diseases may evolve. Further research is urgently needed - not just for cocoa but for all crops - to better prepare agriculture for the future.
Major consequences for farmers
For many farmers in West Africa, who already face low incomes and limited access to resources, climate change could have profound consequences. To offset the negative effects, it is crucial to increase yields per hectare. There is significant potential for improvement, as the current production levels are far below their potential. Better soil management and targeted fertilisation could help bridge this gap. Agroforestry, where cocoa trees are grown alongside other trees, also holds promise. Shade trees can lower temperatures, stabilise humidity, and provide additional products, diversifying farmers' incomes. “Choosing the right shade trees is essential. Some trees use too much water, exacerbating drought issues. It is crucial to select species suited to the local climate and soil conditions,” says Danaë Rozendaal, another researcher on the team. Developing heat- and drought-resistant cocoa varieties and providing training for farmers can also help maintain or even boost production.
The research involved collaboration between WUR groups Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Plant Production Systems Group, and Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group, along with cocoa companies, international and national research institutions, NGOs (non-governmental organisations), and local governments as part of the Norwegian government-funded CocoaSoils programme.
Chocolate prices
The effects of climate change on cocoa production are already noticeable. Cocoa trees, which typically have a lifespan of 20 to 30 years, are struggling with higher temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. This has previously led to crop failures in Ivory Coast. Consumers feel the impact through higher chocolate prices. Some manufacturers are responding by incorporating alternatives, such as cookie pieces, into chocolate bars to reduce cocoa use. “I don’t think cocoa will become so scarce that chocolate letters will only be visible under a microscope in the future,” Anten jokes, “but the sector must adapt to the changing climate.”
The research on the impact of climate change on cocoa production in West and Central Africa is ongoing. Current studies are examining the extent to which West Africa can meet growing cocoa demand while adhering to the EUDR regulations.
The Netherlands and cocoa
Climate effects on cocoa also have economic implications for the Netherlands, one of the largest players in the global cocoa industry. The Netherlands is the second-largest exporter of cocoa, processing large volumes into chocolate and other products for worldwide export. The annual Dutch export value of cocoa and cocoa products is nearly 10 billion euros - almost equal to the combined export value of the dairy and egg sectors. This makes cocoa the fourth-largest export sector in the country.
